The iPad's niche
Apple's shiny new tablet computer has inspired at least two memes among the commentariat: It'll save the newspaper industry, and it'll kill (fill in the blank). My guess is that both are wrong.
Let me start with the David Pogue caveat: We won't really know where iPads will fit into the continuum of gadgets until after reviewers and consumers have taken them out for an extended spin. Still, I think it's a mistake to assume that even a really slick-looking slate from the geniuses in Cupertino will suddenly enable newspaper publishers to generate meaningful revenue online.
For starters, it will take years to reach a critical mass of users. The iPhone passed the 20 million mark in two years, but it's significantly cheaper than the iPad and its utility much more obvious. More important, the iPad doesn't enable publishers to do anything they can't already do online with PCs or with smartphones. The only difference I can see is the ability to show something that more closely resembles the current product (when holding the iPad in portrait mode). Would that lead more people to pay for a subscription? Really?
At today's unveiling ...
The real answer for the news business, I think (and this is just a guess), will be to come up with a paid product that's significantly more timely and relevant to individual readers than what the Net provides at no charge, combined with an experience that's better than what they provide today. The iPad helps on the latter front (in part by inspiring publishers to do more of the graphically engaging things they should be doing already), but not on the former.
Meanwhile, pundits are taking turns suggesting what devices the iPad will dispatch to the dustbin of history. Chris O'Brien at the San Jose Mercury News asked via Twitter, "At $499 for the iPad, why would you ever buy a Netbook?" Tech journalist Janet Rae-Dupree countered on Facebook, "iTouch is the only thing this new device is going to kill." Lalee Sadighi at Red Herring explored the iPad's impact on Amazon's Kindle. And so on and so on.
We won't know for a while, of course, but I think the biggest impact the iPad will have will be on the TV. We're still in the early stages of our migrating from a world of passive broadcast to interactive on-demand media and information. That transition affects what we consume and how we consume it. Many of the devices we're using were simply carried over from the old era, like the TV (and to a lesser extent, the PC). The iPad was built for the new era.
And it's not just a device, it's a platform that can enable new approaches to media. Just as the iPhone gave rise to applications that enhanced computing with the unique capabilities of a mobile device, so may the iPad lead developers to find new hybrids of interactivity and narrative, linear entertainment. It extends connectivity to more of the things that people do today with media, from newspapers and books to TV shows and movies.
Enterpreneurs and manufacturers are still trying to figure out what tools people will use to tap the potential benefits of being continuously connected to the Web. So, too, are movie studios, record companies and other content providers still trying to adapt their business models to a world where almost everything can be made available to consumers at the time and in the format they demand. I suspect there's a device category waiting to be discovered, one that's well suited to the capabilities of this new world. That, I think, is the right context for guessing the fortunes of Apple's new creation.
Photo: Ryan Anson / AFP/Getty Images
-- Jon Healey
The iPhone is the new iPad Nano.
Posted by: Chris | January 27, 2010 at 05:39 PM
@Chris -- Nice!
Posted by: Jon Healey | January 27, 2010 at 05:56 PM
IPad is just Apple's stealthy play for the ebook market. IPad is a color-screened Kindle that surfs too. If you've been on the fence about ebooks -- like me -- now you can buy yourself this nice IPad and use it as a versatile ebook reader instead of getting a grey-screened, 1 trick Kindle . And a Kindle app is already sold by Apple anyway. If anything is going to take Ebooks mass-market -- as in 100s of millions of users -- in my opinion its going to be something with color and versatility like the IPad offers.
Posted by: Barnacle Bob | January 28, 2010 at 08:54 PM
Thanks for the shout-out, @Jon!
Posted by: jraedupree | January 28, 2010 at 08:57 PM
I don't know why the media fawn over Apple devices. Maybe it's overpriced and will bomb. I won't be buyin one.
Posted by: John Q Public | January 28, 2010 at 09:18 PM
I'm going to buy more than just one.
I'm going to buy it in lieu of a computer for family members who don't need a computer. They need something that connects to the Internet, reads e-mails, does word processing, gaming, etc. It's a simple device with all the speed they'll ever need plus I won't have to buy and load software or fix their screw-ups. In fact, I think I can get the household down to one compter, with the rest of our needs covered by iPad, iPhone and iTouch. The Apps are nice because we can share them, if we sync them all with just one computer.
Secondly, I'm hoping there will be something where I can snap it onto a wall and connect it to the household speaker system. If (or should I say when) that is the case, I'll be able to use it in lieu of a flat screen television. If I had one in the kitchen, I could use for my shopping and do to lists and then either sync them through notes, or e-mail them to my iPhone. I don't use my phone for this because the keyboard is way too small.
And the last thing is for International travel. I live in France. When I come to the US, the cell phone thing is way, way to expensive and the laptop is a pain in the neck. If I go to AT&T and get a 3G connection for a month, leave the iPhone at home, use iPad for the Internet, GoogleVoice to call home, etc. I can leave my computer at home. Hopefully, Apple will have similar agreements with other carriers in foreign countries. And, I hope, AT&T makes the connection available at the APP store.
Posted by: David Blackburn | January 28, 2010 at 09:23 PM
Watching how the iPad plays out in the coming year or two will be almost as interesting as following the pre-launch frenzy of speculation.
Put me on the side of those that think the iPad has a good shot at being a true market maker, ala iPhone & iPod.
I would wager that the great majority of laptop owners use their machines, not for heavyweight computing (high level photo editing, pro level CAD, etc.), but for the more mundane (email, web surfing, game playing, schoolwork, etc.). If true, that means that many of these people will give the iPad serious consideration when they are ready to buy a new/additional machine.
The question a buyer will ask is "Is there something that the iPad cannot do, that I need it to do?". For a surprising number, I think the iPad will fulfill their needs.
Jobs said Apple is creating a device between the laptop and the smartphone. I don't see the iPad replacing many smartphones, but I think laptops and especially e-readers will take a serious hit.
Posted by: SierraHotel058 | January 29, 2010 at 06:01 AM
Leaving out the camera was a truly dumb move.
This thing could have replaced the home telephone with video conferencing without all the complications of PCs.
One has to wonder if Apple makes marketing decisions (like not having Flash video capability) for their product due to AT&T's ever so underdeveloped network capabilities.
Posted by: Industry Wag | January 29, 2010 at 06:05 AM
"The iPhone is the new iPad Nano."
No, the iPad is actually more like the iTouch Maxi-Pad. And even that won't stop the bleeding in the newspaper business.
Seriously, it has some major flaws that few seem to be commenting on. Like its cousin devices, Apple still hasn't made it capable of showing Flash animations. It also doesn't have any kind of general purpose file system for saving file attachments you get in emails, editing them, or transferring them to organized folders. It also doesn't have any device interfaces (USB or otherwise).
There is NO way this will ever be a replacement for a laptop or a netbook.
Posted by: CornerJ | January 29, 2010 at 07:51 AM
Other cities may not be as intense, but Los Angeles has its general population mostly labeled as materialistic. And of course everyone has to be the first one to get Apple’s newest and shiniest device which this month would be the Apple iPad.
Wow, who was the creative genius to call it an iPad? Well hey, what else can you call it? It looks like a huge iTouch but with more functions. It cannot be a laptop since it does not even have USB ports or flash animations. It is also too big to be an iPod or a smart phone to fit in your pocket. The closest it can be called is the new Kindle. Not bad, but for a price like that not many would be so optimistic.
On the upside, it does have many applications that your standard laptop or computer would have. But please, before buying this device to show off to your neighbors think about this – do you really need it? Will this $500 device better your life than paying that money for something else? People, you probably already have your iPods, computers, laptops, and cell phones. Is an iPad something you so drastically need or is it just another shiny device to say you have?
Posted by: Justin | February 02, 2010 at 02:04 AM
Silly gadget.
Posted by: Bluto Blutarsky | February 03, 2010 at 08:42 AM