Obama and the Latino vote
What was that about a black-brown divide? With presumptive Latino favorite Hillary Clinton out of the running, Barack Obama has the lead in Latino votes against John McCain. Times Staff Writer Peter Wallsten has the numbers:
A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain.... The Gallup survey of Latinos found that Obama, despite his string of losses to Clinton, performed just as well as Clinton in a theoretical matchup against McCain.
For much of the campaign, Obama seemed incapable of taking the bloc from Clinton, or even McCain. Clinton won Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and more recently, Puerto Rico; she won prominent Latino endorsements, had Patty Solis Doyle at her side (for a time), and ate at King Taco with supporter Antonio Villaraigosa. And husband Bill put prominent Latinos in his cabinet (including current Obama supporter Bill Richardson, himself a historic presidential candidate).
McCain, meanwhile, hails from a southwestern state and launched comprehensive immigration reform (even if he's backed away). Since Cinco de Mayo, and even when playing for his base against less Latino-friendly Republican rivals, McCain has aggressively courted the Latino vote. And immigration reform is one area in which McCain doesn't have to worry about a negative Bush effect — the president backed immigration reform and won a good chunk of Latino voters in 2000 and 2004....
Even the editorial board once worried that Latinos wouldn't vote Obama:
[D]espite Obama's surging national popularity and rhetorical identification with Latino political strength, many Latinos continue to harbor doubts about his candidacy. As this race enters its final stretch, Latinos owe Obama a second look.
But Obama had some appeal: he won Latinos in Virginia; he supported drivers licenses for illegal immigrants; he said those who blame immigrants for job losses were scapegoating (Clinton wouldn't go far). And there was his well-pronounced Spanish in an ad in Puerto Rico.
So the decisive lead Gallup shows speaks well of Obama's chances, given that Latino voters could make the difference in big swing states like Florida. But how important is the bloc? It's said Latinos propelled Bush to victory, and could play a bigger role in 2008 [pdf], since more Latinos are registering to vote. But some have argued that their numbers are still too small to play a decisive role.
*Photo of Obama and Richardson courtesy Associated Press.
lies...all lies.
dont say blue collar unless you got one and take it to work every day.
and whoever is writing this stuff should be fired for saying anything about LATINO dropout rates. HE most likely sent his kids to a private institution, like our wonderful mayor...lol.
Posted by: steve | October 27, 2008 at 03:46 PM
"who has chosen Mexicans over them"
latino does not = mexican
ignorance may be bliss but it cant hurt to get some knowledge.
Posted by: randomposter | June 14, 2008 at 06:35 PM
There will be a significant Latino vote; however, about 25% of American Latinos oppose illegal immigration (based on exit polls of anti-illegal immigrant initiatives on California ballots), so Obama's pandering to Latinos based on his unqualified support for illegal immigrants won't get that vote.
And a significant minority of Latinos are right wing conservatives. He won't get those either.
And because there's a lot of animosity between poor Latinos and poor blacks, he'll also lose some fraction of Latino votes due to that.
But the main problem for Obama is that illegal alien labor competition has enabled employers to drive down blue-collar wages 5-25%, depending on region and business sector. So even where illegals don't take the jobs Americans will do, they take a critical slice of the wages of even blue-collar Americans with jobs.
A lot of these blue-collar Americans can tell that Obama is an academic leftist who has chosen Mexicans over them. And when they raise objections, Obama dismisses them as "nativists." He doesn't even speak to their complaints. Namecalling appears to suffice for the Great Uniter.
It's also these blue-collar Americans whose schools are being brought down by hordes kids who don't speak English and don't show much interest in learning it or anything else (Latino dropout rates are prodigious). It's these blue-collar Americans who can't get help in their local emergency wards because Mexicans living here illegally are using those ERs as their primary care outlet.
Obama's nice middle-class children won't suffer from any of this. Nor will the LA Times' editors. Nor will their circles of friends, who I daresay don't include any blue-collar workers.
But Obama may well lose his run for the presidency because he chose Mexicans over Americans--and for many, many working class Americans of every race, it's just that simple.
And then you can dismiss the loss as nativism, racism, yada yada, once again proving William Blake's saying "the fox blames the trap, not himself."
Posted by: Ehkzu | June 07, 2008 at 01:12 AM