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Putting the "B" in H-1B

The Center for Immigration Studies' Norman Matloff comes up with a new measure that, he says, indicates H-1B visa recipients are not in fact the best and the brightest that proponents sometimes suggest they are.

I don't know how persuasive you'll find Matloff's "talent measure," or TM value. I think it fails to prove Matloff's main conclusions: that H-1B holders overall are not noticeably more skilled than native workers and that within the universe of H-1B holders, Western Europeans are more skilled than Asians. But the TM value has one attraction: It uses a marketplace value for making its assessment.

The value is calculated by comparing the ratio of the worker's salary to the prevailing wage figure stated by the employer. So if you've got a TM value of 1.0 you're making essentially the average salary for the job you're doing. Since employers can't (officially at least) pay visa holders less than the stated prevailing wage, nobody should show a TM value of less than 1.0. On the other hand, if you're a gifted worker you should have a higher TM value because you can command a higher salary.

The shocking conclusion? One multiplied by one equals one:

  • The median TM value over all foreign workers studied was just a hair over 1.0.
  • The median TM value was also essentially 1.0 in each of the tech professions studied.
  • Median TM was near 1.0 for almost all prominent tech firms that were analyzed.
  • Contrary to the constant hyperbole in the press that “Johnnie can’t do math” in comparison with kids in Asia, TM values for workers from Western European countries tend to be much higher than those of their Asian counterparts.

Shouldn't this last point address hyperbole about how "Johann" or "Jean-Luc" can't do math? I mean, the media self-flagellation about poor math scores concerns American students, not Western European students, right? Is Matloff saying Americans and Western Europeans are interchangeable?

The breakouts by company and nation of origin are interesting, but I'm not sure they prove anything other than that Microsoft appears to be a generous employer and that immigrant tech workers from Canada and Germany command higher salaries than those from India. That seems easily explicable: a Canadian worker would presumably be a native English speaker and thus a little more comfortable at negotiating a good price, while a German brings language skills that, given Germany's continued industrial and technological strength, would be worth paying a premium for. 

Or maybe language skills have nothing to do with it, and there are some other variables at work. (For example, suppose most or all of the people in the U.S. doing a particular job are Indian H-1B holders: Then a TM value of 1.0 could just mean that they're all above average, Lake Woebegone-style.) In any event, I don't see how these numbers refute the claims of the hypothetical industrialist or lily-livered immigration supporter who thinks the best person to judge what skills he or she needs is the person doing the hiring.

Prove that I just don't get it or am being intentionally obtuse by reading the whole article right here.

Update: Matloff responds. Good stuff in the comments too...

Comments

The value is calculated by comparing the ratio of the worker's salary to the prevailing wage figure stated by the employer. So if you've got a TM value of 1.0 you're making essentially the average salary for the job you're doing. Since employers can't (officially at least) pay visa holders less than the stated prevailing wage, nobody should show a TM value of less than 1.0. On the other hand, if you're a gifted worker you should have a higher TM value because you can command a higher salary, say 3.0. And, since every H-1B is alleged to be "best and brightest", then every TM ratio should be closer to 3.0 than 1.0.

Well, Cavanaugh, I think de la Vega just kicked your butt.

This is yet another example of how corrupt this visa program is. The entire program was launched based on phony claims from industry and the NSF that the nation faced a "looming shortage of scientists and engineers." No - - - The program facilitated American "high tech" employers such as Microsoft to replace (or not hire) experienced American citizens. The employers hired (and continue to hire) "Fresh young (inexpensive) blood." - now mostly from India and Communist China.

As you will see when you look at the chart showing the over 25 million actual visa admissions on just five highly-skiled visa programs in my January, 2008 investigative article, "The Greedy Gates Immigration Gambit" (Please google on the title and then select the much more readable and engaging PDF version) this government subsidy program has become very bloated.

LA Times readers should use the free citizen activism tools at NumbersUSA.com to press for reform of this controversial program.

That seems easily explicable: a Canadian worker would presumably be a native English speaker and thus a little more comfortable at negotiating a good price, while a German brings language skills that, given Germany's continued industrial and technological strength, would be worth paying a premium for.

Or, perhaps in the spirit of William of Occam, we can propose an explanation that covers both cases... workers from Western countries more nearly approach what the public is told about H1-B's, that these are 'best and brightest' workers without whom the US tech industry is doomed. I.e. they are more nearly Bruce de la Vega's 3.

I don't see how these numbers refute the claims of the hypothetical industrialist or lily-livered immigration supporter who thinks the best person to judge what skills he or she needs is the person doing the hiring.

But that is not the argument that either industrialists or even Cato-type immigration enthusiasts, at least when addressing the public. The argument is as above, that these are 'talented' (implication, above average) workers. And besides, nobody is saying Microsoft can't hire whomever it wants. It is saying it doesn't have a license to bring them here.

Its interesting that Matloff's article focuses on US companies. I understand why -- they are the 'best case' of the immigration-supporting side. But let's not forget that India-based and Indian-run companies are huge H1-B users, and the suspicion is that, rather than 'saving' us tech, their H1-B activities is actually serving as a bridge for more off-shoring.

And finally, a little bit of the sociological side-effects of H1-Bs being given out like candy in a society which, although admirable in many ways, is radically different then our own. From The Hindu

Come December every year, and there's an exodus of H-1B men back to India. They telephone their immigration lawyers to tell them that they are travelling back to India for a month to get married and need the requisite papers to bring their brides back with them. When told: "Congratulations! What's her name? I'll put it on your documents," the reply is usually: "I don't know, I have not met her as yet."

Back in India, there are numerous families who are keen to find their daughters a match among these men during their whirlwind marriage tours. A boy in the U.S. and his H-1B status makes him more eligible a bachelor than a green card holder because his bride can join him in the U.S. right away with a H-4 visa instead of waiting in India for two to three years for her own green card. It also means that he has at least a bachelor's degree, a good job with prospects of green card sponsorship, and can offer their daughter a life in the U.S. Decisions are made rapidly. Often the bride's family doesn't have time to explore the groom's background or personality during these quick trips

I imagine if a H1-B helped me land someone that looked like ex- Ms. Salmon Rushdie (supposing I could figure out if I'm mangleek or non-mangleek and a phrase other than 'riceish' to describe my complexion) and I'd been all for them too.

And with that blaze of links I'm afraid I have to swear-off my role as the 'Opinion LA' immigration gad-fly/pain-in-the-neck for a few months. Its been fun and very civil, thanks for the tolerance to you all. In the words of an immigrant that has a job I'm pretty sure some American would like to do , I'll be back.

That seems easily explicable: a Canadian worker would presumably be a native English speaker and thus a little more comfortable at negotiating a good price, while a German brings language skills that, given Germany's continued industrial and technological strength, would be worth paying a premium for.

Or, perhaps in the spirit of William of Occam, we can propose an explanation that covers both cases... workers from Western countries more nearly approach what the public is told about H1-B's, that these are 'best and brightest' workers without whom the US tech industry is doomed. I.e. they are more nearly Bruce de la Vega's 3.

I don't see how these numbers refute the claims of the hypothetical industrialist or lily-livered immigration supporter who thinks the best person to judge what skills he or she needs is the person doing the hiring.

But that is not the argument that either industrialists or even Cato-type immigration enthusiasts, at least when addressing the public. The argument is as above, that these are 'talented' (implication, above average) workers. And besides, nobody is saying Microsoft can't hire whomever it wants. It is saying it doesn't have a license to bring them here.

Its interesting that Matloff's article focuses on US companies. I understand why -- they are the 'best case' of the immigration-supporting side. But let's not forget that India-based and Indian-run companies are huge H1-B users, and the suspicion is that, rather than 'saving' us tech, their H1-B activities is actually serving as a bridge for more off-shoring.

And finally, a little bit of the sociological side-effects of H1-Bs being given out like candy in a society which, although admirable in many ways, is radically different then our own. From The Hindu

Come December every year, and there's an exodus of H-1B men back to India. They telephone their immigration lawyers to tell them that they are travelling back to India for a month to get married and need the requisite papers to bring their brides back with them. When told: "Congratulations! What's her name? I'll put it on your documents," the reply is usually: "I don't know, I have not met her as yet."

Back in India, there are numerous families who are keen to find their daughters a match among these men during their whirlwind marriage tours. A boy in the U.S. and his H-1B status makes him more eligible a bachelor than a green card holder because his bride can join him in the U.S. right away with a H-4 visa instead of waiting in India for two to three years for her own green card. It also means that he has at least a bachelor's degree, a good job with prospects of green card sponsorship, and can offer their daughter a life in the U.S. Decisions are made rapidly. Often the bride's family doesn't have time to explore the groom's background or personality during these quick trips

And with that I'm afraid I have to swear off my role as the 'Opinion LA' immigration gad-fly/pain-in-the-neck for a few months. Its been fun and very civil, thanks for the tolerance to you all.

In the words of an immigrant that has a job a Mexican-American would have liked to have done, I'll be back.

he prevailing wage already accounts for education and experience, so why would somebody be paid above the prevailing wage?

By the brilliant math, I get a TM of 1.04 (my salary vs. prevailing wage).

But guess what? The company paid out closing costs on my new house and all relocation expenses grossed up for taxes (totalling $5000), and $6000 in a sign-on bonus.

Guess Master Matloff’s info (PERM) did not contain that info. The H1B prevailing wage rule did not say the company has to do any of these. But they did, to have me.

I get paid $10 at McDonalds, while the prevailing wage is $8. So, My TM is 1.25. Am I the best and the brightest?

The question needs to be, how does the average H1B salary compare to the average salary in the US?

Or, perhaps in the spirit of William of Occam, we can propose an explanation that covers both cases... workers from Western countries more nearly approach what the public is told about H1-B's, that these are 'best and brightest' workers without whom the US tech industry is doomed. I.e. they are more nearly Bruce de la Vega's 3.

Command of English or German doesn't increase the value of a tech worker? And is there someplace I'm not aware of where large numbers of people routinely make 300% of the prevailing wage for the job they're doing?

Anon phrases the question more succinctly than I could: Where is the evidence that anybody should be making more than one full unit of the prevailing wage? Why is it considered an anomaly that they're making what the market decided they're supposed to be making?

Oh Tim, I can resist anything but the temptaion of a blog comment war...

And is there someplace I'm not aware of where large numbers of people routinely make 300% of the prevailing wage for the job they're doing?

I'm pretty sure you can find those wage differentials in Major League Baseball, and Beckham is probably getting at least ten times the average of a MLS midfielder. Does Eric Clapton make more than the house band at the local blues joint? yeah I think so.

I'll grant you that '3' is probably a little much for a 'normal' field with lots of workers, but let's listen to Bill Gates (educated and incorporated at a time of historically low immigration, btw) in front of the Millionaire's Club we call the Senate.

I cannot overstate the importance of overhauling our high-skilled immigration system. We have to welcome the great minds in this world, not shut them out of our country. Unfortunately, our immigration policies are driving away the world's best and brightest precisely when we need them most. The fact is that the terrible shortfall in the visa supply for highly skilled scientists and engineers stems from visa policies that have not been updated in more than 15 years. [all emphases mine -- MY]

So, the issue here is not about what you might consider a truism of economics -- people that do similar jobs get similar pay -- it is about how this program is being sold. If these are the best and brightest, in an intellectual field they are going to be earning more. I'll bet Tim Berners-Lee gets a lot more that some regular dude lumped into his same job category. Ditto Linus Torvalds. Industry is selling H1-Bs as if we are talking Einsteins or Amartya Sen's. These H1-Bs are packaged as the tech equivalents of Becks or Slowhand; the salary data shows they aren't.

However, there is data showing that in some cases, H1-B is working at least like pale shadow of its supposed purpose. That is in the cross-country data. The sample sizes are large enough to be significant, industry is willing to pay Western Europeans and Canadians more which doesn't make sense, unless they offer something that US workers really don't. (and no, moving bonuses etc. don't count because we can assume with sample sizes this large and no info to the contrary that perks will randomize out -- why wouldn't Canadians be getting them also? And no, language probably aint it either -- for a stateside 'software engineer' communicating with body shop coders in Bangalore, Tamil fluency is more important that German and Indians are probably better at haggling then Canadians -- they are raised with the practice)

In short, the anomaly is not with the economics, it's with the way the H1-B program is sold. 'Best and Brightest' imports should be earning more in a field that supposedly rewards smarts. They are not. If they aren't they are simply a source of labor keeping wages stuck in face of a 'shortage' ?

Why not just let the national market correct? If the 'prevailing wage' in tech goes up, then more American kids will go into tech, some out-of-the-field middle age C programmers will learn Java and get back in, and the like. In those scenarios, all the externalities of immigration are avoided.

Finally, I think that Norman Matloff is more properly identified by his day job -- prof. of Computer Science at UC Davis -- so people don't think he is just another restrictionist hack at CIS.

This prevailing wage is so misleading, it's an average, y'know, and an average of just what? An average worker should get an average wage, should be a standard distribution, and if about 15% aren't making one sigma more than the average, something is wrong (that is, if the sigma is tiny, something is wrong - namely the really highly skilled are not getting compenstated).

As it is, the "prevailing" wage has already been forced down so low, the rest of the calculation is a joke. Say that a home improvement contractor decides to hire only one-armed paper-hangers. The prevailing wage then becomes the worth of the (average) one-armed paper-hanger. Should a two-armed paper-hanger appear and apply for the job, and get paid 1.01 times the prevailing wage, well, hoo-rah. This is basically the H-1B situation, the one-armed aspect being youth, weaker foreign university backgrounds, poorer communications skills, etc. Those weakness are also prevailing now, too!

Of course, the real question is, why then would employers start hiring one-armed paper-hangers in the first place? The answer is complex, but well hey, just trust me on this.

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